Ebola, Advantage Tekmira

These are critical weeks for Tekmira.  Not only is Tekmira fighting to get back control over its LNP delivery technology, the full-fledged termination of the Ebola biodefense program following the Stop-Work Order would have given the company serious headaches.  As much of the current cash-flow derives from the $140M biodefense contract from the Department of Defense (DoD), the company may have been forced to decide between laying off or furloughing staff until the decision in re Alnylam would provide more funding clarity (November-December 2012).

Luckily, with the DoD deciding to continue Tekmira’s Ebola program, the advantage is again with Tekmira.  My main concern with a negative biodefense decision was that it might have particularly affected the long-term ability of the company to continue to innovate on its LNP technology.  The benefits of the biodefense contract were particularly visible in manufacturing (such as scale-up and lyophilization), thereby allowing the company to build on a key competitive strength.

Of course, it is fair to say that I feel vindicated by the simultaneous decision by the DoD to discontinue Sarepta’s competing Ebola development program: Tekmira’s RNAi Therapeutics approach, now in phase I studies, had the stronger scientific data compared to Sarepta’s antisense approach which had once enjoyed a multi-year head-start (here my 2010 comparison of the two programs).  

Liposomally formulated RNAi Therapeutics also has the advantage of facilitating multi-targeting.  This opens up the prospect for targeting multiple viral, but also host factors, some of which may actually be shared by a number of hemorrhagic fever viruses (HFV). I start getting the impression that setting the stage for the development of such broad-acting HFV therapeutics appears to be an increasingly important aspect of Tekmira’s Ebola program.

I should add that Sarepta will continue to be funded under an analogous $140M contract for Marburg (also a HFV).  Here, the company seemed to have achieved important post-infectionmilestones.  Tekmira does not compete here.  Continuing to fund both an RNAi Therapeutics and an antisense program may also be a strategic risk-mitigating decision by the DoD in case one approach encounters terminal platform issues.

Nevertheless, comments by David Hough from the DoD indicate that the decision was mostly based on the scientific merits:

"Our job is to ensure we're making the most out of every dollar we spend," he noted. "We evaluated each contractor's efforts independently.  The evaluation was conducted using all current data and in accordance with the criteria set forth in the awarded contracts and as stated in the initial solicitation.  This was certainly a tough decision but the final decision was made to move forward on continuing the development of the drug candidate that represents the best value to the Government based on what we know today."