This
morning, Ionis Pharmaceuticals rattled my world by announcing an update to its neuro parnership with Biogen. After recovering from a
shock reaction thinking that $6B market cap Ionis Pharmaceuticals had sold the
rest of its crown jewels in the neurological space for $500M and little more (upfront and
premium paid by Biogen for the stock consideration), I noticed that this was
merely the renewal of an earlier partnership that was about to expire in 2019.
Clearly,
Biogen was eager to continue the partnership with sales gushing in from its first
neurological disease partnership candidate, SPINRAZA for the treatment of spinal muscular
atrophy, and other neuro antisense programs such as the one for Huntington’s Disease showing great clinical promise.
As time was
running out on the previous deal, Biogen wanted to buy itself additional time
to be able to pick the right neuro antisense candidates. In return for the 10-year extension, Biogen
will now have to make its picks already by the end of IND-enabling studies
instead of with clinical proof-of-concept.
This makes it likely that as Ionis can be expected to churn out IND-enabling
studies one after another, quite a few candidates will slip by that deadline
and become wholly owned by Ionis Pharmaceuticals.
Equally
exciting is the fact that despite the earlier exercise term, instead of earning
single digit to midteen royalty on drug sales, Ionis now stands to receive
midteen to 20% royalties on sales.
On the
downside, in the wake of the latest Akcea deal re-arrangements and this neuro
deal extension which effectively shuts off other suitors to become owners of a
significant part of the Ionis neuro franchise, we can wave good-bye to any
hopes of a quick buy-out. More likely, Ionis
will largely remain a royalty play for the next 8-10 years by which time it
surely will have a new CEO. And then
Biogen.
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