Until now, Regulus Therapeutics has been a comparatively credible and fairly low-key publicly traded biotech company to the degree that until October 2014 they had not even recognized the jewel that RG-101 could become for the company. Besides the animal pharmacokinetics-human efficacy relationship, it is one of the reasons why I am long RGLS going into the results, believing the market is yet to appreciate the full value of RG-101. Unfortunately, the insider sales have somewhat shaken this belief and I hope management will learn from it.
Sunday, February 1, 2015
Reading the Tea Leaves on Regulus Insider Sales
Until now, Regulus Therapeutics has been a comparatively credible and fairly low-key publicly traded biotech company to the degree that until October 2014 they had not even recognized the jewel that RG-101 could become for the company. Besides the animal pharmacokinetics-human efficacy relationship, it is one of the reasons why I am long RGLS going into the results, believing the market is yet to appreciate the full value of RG-101. Unfortunately, the insider sales have somewhat shaken this belief and I hope management will learn from it.
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20 comments:
Surely they aren't so stupid (and greedy) to front run a bad release with a big sale and then go before the investing community and answer questions on a data release conference call
In any event, even if the data is good, it's poor judgement to proceed with a sale as this before a big data release. They will have to answer questions about their "thought process" in going forward with the sale which is diverting from time on real management issues. Just plain stupid.
How does one explain the Deutsch Bank valuation of $30 per share?
I do not like it either. They already know the data. Sell the stock and leave us minions holding the bag
Thanks, Dirk, for laying out the timeline!
I am going to make the guess that they were trying to be clever in their planning last year and intended / hoped to do the stock sales right after the announcement in order to benefit from a lift in the stock.
Exciting week to come either way!
F the Seahawks - Go Patriots
Dirk, what is the underlying hypothesis you hold that says this selling is directly related to quality of data?
Fantastic data will not stop a short attack if these miscreants and their media/blogger lackeys wish for one. Witness ARWR.
Perhaps some kind of transaction is about to materialize for third party IP because of the success in the data, where the currency of the transaction is paper, cutting its value by a half or more. A form of quantitative easing if you like.
To assert that this selling is related to data simply because it is assumed they already know the data is disingenuous and not a little bit derogatory to the integrity of the vendors.
Accordingly, all eyes should be on PFE and maybe BIIB to see what their response will be.
the 80,000 he sold he held. he had the right to acquire another 121,789 according to the 2014 Proxy. The K will have detail on the strikes. Didn't have time to look
You might want to read about the board. Little chance COB would have allowed insider sales in light of negative news.
Not sure I would try to translate the sales into an opinion on upcoming data. KX still has over a million options and gets more every year. Seems like good financial planning, similar to that practiced by JM at Alnylam.
Surely somebody can relate this back to BLT? SURELY !!
Steve- I somewhat agree. However, all these gazillion in options have not vested yet and he wants to upgrade his house srtl to keep up with the Joneses in San Diego.
It's the timing of these sales that gets me. Of note, in October, the same day they announced (good) results, shares got vested for a number of company officers. Now that was a lucky coincidence.
They sold because they don't believe the captain has to go down with the ship. They are planning to spin the results but the street is getting wise to BS since we are late in the game with regard to HEP C. The other latecomer ACHN is looking at developing 6 week therapy. From the data so far, RG-101 looks like it will need 2 doses and oral antivirals in combination.
The insider trading in the Feb calls is quite obvious
You will be ridiculed by Benitec shareholders regardless of RGLS because of your track record of putting it down whilst having once applied for a job with them. Notwithstanding the Kay/Avocell epoch.
Even your RGLS interest carries the feeling of begrudgement in it; denigrating the CEO and CFO, talking up negative data while having accumulated quite a stock pile with calls on top.
Can you refer me to somebody at the company that will attest that I have applied for a job there? Am curious where these theories come from.
Dirk,
Pay these anonymous posters who chirp unsubstantiated nonsense no mind. And thanks for posting the extremely informative work you do.
Who needs the company? It was La Jolla that picked up the tab.
ARWR MkII. Who couldn't see the possibility of a short attack coming? Especially after the inside sales.
Basic fallacy being held out as fact is share price depends on data quality. We'd all like to think so but the market is not that simple. Even if the data is miles ahead of anyone and everything else, it should be understood by followers that SP appreciation won't happen unless its pumped or the technology is confirmed by independent third party with premium.
For that reason, the overt absence of PFE and BMY in the RNAi space says it all. To understand the reasons why that is, one needs to consider the TPP.
Not until closure on the TPP in principle not necessarily actuality (we may not know its closed til after a commercial transaction) will hands be revealed.
Until then, days like today are the shorts delight.
PFE's fireside chat this week should be interesting.
Dirk's tweet: Amazing. Most potent ever HCV drug to be developed.
Yeah? According to who?
So, what's it worth to them?
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