Implications of Ebola data for Tekmira HBV Program

Like it or not, it is the HBV program that is driving the interest in Tekmira, at least in the near-term.  Therefore, the 15% sell-off in the stock yesterday following the Clinical Hold imposed by the FDA can be interpreted to be due to the uncertainty of what it means for the HBV program.

It is my working hypothesis that for the treatment of HBV via the immune reactivation pathway, the use of even transient immune suppression is to be avoided.  On the other hand, the recent Ebola clinical results by Tekmira suggest that transient immune suppression may also be desirable for 3^rd gen SNALP delivery.  As TKM-HBV is expected to utilize '3^rd gen' SNALP delivery, too, the Ebola results with immune activation seem like a bad omen.

While this cannot be ignored, there are a few reasons to believe that this might be too simplistic.

1.       Difference in dose

Although there was an apparent tendency for immune stimulation throughout the dose escalation with TKM-EBOLA, it was only at the high dose of 0.5mg/kg where a dose-limiting toxicity was observed. And according the yesterday's press release on the Clinical Hold, it is in particular cytokine elevations that were observed at 'higher doses' that are the issue.  

 Since unlike Ebola, HBV only replicates in hepatocytes, and because SNALP potency is highest in hepatocytes, the efficacious dose for HBV may be well below 0.5mg/kg with 3^rd gen formulations.  Of note, even 2nd gen SNALPs are highly effective at 0.3mg/kg based on the Tekmira-enabled ALN-TTR02 candidate now in phase III.

2.       Different sequence, different immune stimulation

It is known (e.g. Judge et al. 2005: Sequence-dependent immune stimulation of the mammalian innate immune response by synthetic siRNAs) that immune stimulation by RNAi, especially when liposomally formulated, is highly dependent on the actual sequence and modification pattern of the RNAi trigger.  Since TKM-EBOLA and TKM-HBV are different in that regard, it is well possible that while one 3^rd gen formulation is immunostimulatory, the other is not.

3.       Immunostimulatory by design/by screen

Scientifically, I was most disappointed by the Ebola immune stimulations as Tekmira made a big deal in the wake of similar observation in 2010 with TKM-ApoB that with improved, more predictive immune stimulation assays, they would now be able to screen out the immunostimulatory formulations.  In a black-and-white world you would conclude ‘obviously not!’.

In a world of shades of grey, I can imagine that TKM-EBOLA might have happened to slip through this part of the screening process.  The reason is that since Ebola infects a number of cell types besides hepatocytes (endothelial cells, phagocytes etc), the impressive efficacy of TKM-EBOLA always stood out as something quite unusual.  So while containing the spread of the virus by hitting it particularly hard in the liver might be part of the mechanism, I am quite receptive to the notion that the scientists did not mind all that much some immune stimulation when the RNAi formulation had so much efficacy.

With HBV, however, the company might be much more careful in screening out immunostimulatory potential.

I can now hear Sarepta investors yell ‘it’s an artefact’, but I would caution them that Sarepta and the morpholino field at large is proposing morpholinos with cationic appendices for infectious diseases while these are not really considered for genetic diseases.  What I don’t understand is that why a modification that is supposed to be helpful in e.g. suppressing viral gene expression should not likewise be useful for suppressing human gene expression.  So maybe the value of these modifications is in tickling the immune system?

4.       Not all 3^rd gen are created equal

In response to a questioner in the Q1 financial conference call, the CEO of Tekmira said that the definitions of the various SNALP generations is not as clean as you would like from a chemical point-of-view.  Instead, the definition largely is a reflection of the potency improvements of the formulations.  Therefore, since TKM-EBOLA has a different set of target cells than TKM-HBV, it is well possible, even expected, that the formulations will also differ in their lipid compositions.  Since lipids are an amplifier of the liposomal-RNAi immune response, differences therein could have big implications as to the immune stimulation of the various formulations.

Disclosure: I am long Tekmira and only partially heeded my own advice of stepping out of the TKM-Ebola ‘Haertetest’ (trial provided not much upside to investors).  On the other hand, Tekmira has upside potential from a number of non-Ebola programs especially HBV and mRNA delivery.  As the worst case scenario, an outright termination of TKM-EBOLA, is a real risk, it becomes more and more difficult to get the timing right ahead of the upcoming TKM-HBV data.  If, however, you don’t mind volatility and are a long-term investor, it’s another matter.  However, at least for me, Tekmira is not the stock any more to maintain a 100% position in.