Last time I’ve checked, Novartis was not desperate for cash.
The cash-flow of Big Pharma is still one
of the most impressive features of their businesses, maybe more so than their
innovative juices.
It therefore strikes me as very odd that Alnylam has just provided notice that Novartis last week sold approximately $30M worth of their stock, and has a remaining holding of $80M. If Novartis
wanted to get out of Alnylam, and worse still, RNAi Therapeutics altogether,
why not sell the entire stake at once and get it over with?
For Novartis, Delivery is Now or Never
Novartis has RNAi trigger IP rights from Alnylam for 31
targets. However, the IP, especially the
Tuschl II 3’ overhang one which I consider the most valuable, albeit not gate-keeping part of that decimated estate, is ageing rapidly. Novartis therefore needs access to some clinically
viable delivery fast. Tekmira’s systemic SNALP
delivery, of course, is currently industry-leading and, also considering the IP
clock (~2020-2021), is an obvious technology for Novartis to utilize.
Indeed, Tekmira’s Complaint against Alnylam includes a
charge that Alnylam allegedly manufactured SNALP LNPs for Novartis, despite the
Tekmira/Protiva-Alnylam Agreement that clearly state that Tekmira is the
exclusive liposome manufacturer until late-stage clinical development
commences. This would seem an easy charge to verify (note: this is a Count that is independent from the MC3 story). If so, Alnylam’s very
survival would also depend on the silence of Novartis (and its other current
and former Big Pharma partners). It is
also known that the Head of RNAi Therapeutics at Novartis, David Morrissey, is
intimately familiar with Tekmira’s technology from a hepatitis-related collaboration
when still at Sirna Therapeutics (~2004-5).
Since neither Alnylam nor Tekmira have a clinically-focused
hepatitis program, I suspect that at least HepC has been picked by Novartis
exclusively; HepB may be co-exclusive with Arrowhead/Mirus..hence 31 and not 30
targets.
All this leads me to the following speculation (and I
emphasize that this is just my speculation, nothing more): Novartis is shifting their RNAi
Therapeutics budget to invest $30M or more in delivery technology. If that involved Tekmira's technology it could also be part of an effort to resolve the hard-fought litigation.
Novartis’ delivery strategy is one of the industry’s
best-kept secrets, but with the August 2012 Marina Biotech oligonucleotide modification deal and an estimated 60-100 employees working on RNAi
Therapeutics at that company and having played the game relatively smartly
compared to its Big Pharma peers Merck and Roche, which leads me to believe they are not getting out of RNAi Therapeutics (also in light of the recent clinical results), some of that secret may soon
be lifted.
