Predicting the Outcome of Regulus HCV microRNA Therapeutics Study

Regulus Therapeutics is on track to reveal phase I results of its anti-HCV compound by the end of the year according to a presentation at last week's OTS.  Although the phase I study is largely a healthy volunteer dose-escalating safety study, it does involve a cohort of HCV patients to assess the viral knockdown kinetics following a single dose of anti-miR122 RG-101. 

MicroRNA-122 is a small RNA host factor that had been identified to play an important role in HCV replication.  As a therapeutic target it promises a low risk of viral resistance, pan-genotypic activity, and entirely novel mechanism of action making it suitable for combination therapy.

Based on the experience with an LNA-based competitor compound by Santaris/Roche (Janssen et al. NEJM 2013), I predict a 2 to 3 log viral knockdown, with a 3 log viral knockdown setting the scene for RG-101 as a single shot in a 4-week treatment regimen in combination with other oral direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs).  If viral reductions were on the low end of my expectations, it may require 2 or 3 doses within 4 weeks for GalNAc, cET-enhanced RG-101 to facilitate such a short treatment period which is considered a necessary attribute of future treatment regimens in an increasingly competitive market.

Miravirsen comparison

Earlier studies by Regulus competitor Santaris/Roche largely form the basis for my predictions.  In particular, a phase II study of 5 weekly doses of miravirsen at 3, 5, and 7mg/kg yielded 1.2log (3mg/kg) and ~3log (5 and 7mg/kg) viral knockdowns.  Miravirsen is an LNA-based antisense compound whereas RG-101 involves the analogous high-affinity cET chemistry.  Conservatively, miravirsen has a slight (1-3x) potency advantage over RG-101 without the GalNAc conjugation when considering non-human primate and clinical AldoA and cholesterol results which reflect anti-miR122 activity.

However, the GalNAc conjugate in RG-101 is giving it a great 10-30x boost in potency, meaning that overall RG-101 should be 3-30x more potent than miravirsen.  It is because of this and considering that RG-101 is given at 2 and 4mg/kg in the phase I trial in HCV patients, that I arrive at a predicted 2-3 log HCV reduction in the phase I study.  This also makes the conservative assumption that 3log viral reductions is all that an anti-miR122 treatment strategy may achieve based on the apparent plateauing of miravirsen at 5mg/kg.  The 3 log prediction would require that a single shot of RG-101 can already achieve super-therapeutic tissue levels of the oligo.  This, however, cannot be assumed given that for non-ligand-targeted phosphorothioate antisense technology at least this would normally require a multi-dose loading schedule.

But isn’t RG-101 late to the HCV game?

It’s long been thought that it’s game over for RG-101 given the dynamics in the HCV markets.  In particular, the already approved and soon-to-be-approved all-oral DAAs which typically achieve cures in >90% of patients in 8-12 weeks in well-supervised clinical trial settings, would make newer agents like RG-101 seem outdated.  On the other hand, especially given cost pressures (~$100K per average treatment and ~4 million infected in the US alone), the uptake of the new treatments has been relatively slow with only 1-2% treated thus far (according to some of the analyst reports that I have read).  And even then, the sales have been spectacular: Sovaldi e.g. is on track to become the most successful drug launch ever being on track for more than $10 billion in sales in its first launch year!!!

It is the cost pressures (pricing per pill, not per cure) and improved adherence that make a shortened 4-week treatment period so desirable.  A single or two subcutaneous injections in the doctor’s office during routine check-ups where blood is taken anyway should add to compliance.  Holding the subcutaneous route of administration of RG-101 against the drug is therefore wrong in my opinion and the ‘all-oral’ notion, a misnomer really, has only been so attractive because the former subcutaneous standard of care, interferon, was so unpopular not because of the needle injections, but because of its side effects.

So place your bets.  I believe RG-101 has value and will not only be superior to the Santaris/Roche drug, but has pretty much caught up with it in development terms given that miravirsen has only been tested with a DAA (telaprevir) that is already long outdated.  As to the necessary Big Pharma/Biotech licensee, Johnson&Johnson tops my list.

Disclosure: Long RGLS as an RNA Therapeutics stock waiting to be re-discovered with an increasingly broad and clinical-stage pipeline and good financials.  The RG-101 results should only be the trigger for the re-discovery of this ~$300M market cap company.   

ISIS Claims Scalp of Santaris CEO

After noticing that the former President of the US operations of Danish LNA antisense company Santaris, Art Levin, had just joined muscle microRNA Therapeutics company miRagen, I was alerted that this has been in the wake of a major shake-up at Santaris. Most notably, it appears that the CEO of Santaris, Soren Tulstrup, either handed in his resignation, or, more likely, was let go.


Privately-held Santaris, of course, has been a fierce rival of ISIS for supremacy in the antisense space.  Having former ISIS insider Art Levin join Santaris 2 1/2 years ago was in fact a bit of a coup for that company.  Its LNA technology is probably the most potent/high-affinity in the space for many applications.  ISIS, however, has had the benefit of increased financial might and having built a large patent estate that it is (ab-)using to sue, preferably smaller competitors with the obvious intention of making it difficult, if not impossible for those to raise capital and pursue business development opportunities.  It is rumored that ‘partner’/satellite company Alnylam has probably paid the price in the tens of millions for the privilege of going public.   


Not long ago, ISIS sued Santaris for unduly hiding under the Research Exemption in its various relationships including Pfizer, Enzon, GSK, and Shire.  In parallel, ISIS and microRNA spin-off Regulus have been haunting Santaris by questioning Santaris’ ability to develop its exciting lead candidate, miravirsen, a miR-122 antagonist for the treatment of HCV.  As a result, Santaris was dumped by GSK in favor of Regulus’ miR-122 program despite having the superior data package, which is also born out by the clinical data so far (here for the latest update at EASL).


Regulus announced this week that it was awarded another HCV miR-122 patent, in Japan, concluding with the remark that it was continuing to pay 'attention to hepatitis C'- somewhat ironical given that its clinical entry seems to be delayed forever.  Seeing that announcement, I had thought that this was one of the unnecessary PRs that I often take as a sign of weakness. In hindsight, it was probably just a case of adding insult to injury.


I myself have had reservations about the wisdom of building the company’s financial future on a program for which it may be lacking access to some of the key patents in the space.  Although one may assume that in the wake of its scientifically leading efforts in miR-122/HCV, Santaris will have in turn built IP to which Regulus would need access if it were to develop its own miR-122 antagonist,  such a strategy has been a high-stakes gamble for sure.  Along with the ISIS lawsuit questioning Santaris’ fundamental business development strategy, I would therefore not be surprised if the CEO had faced some tough questions by Santaris' investors about his decisions and consequently was ousted. 


Clearly, an exit in the form of an IPO or takeover had long been overdue for that company.  The company’s technology, pipeline, and relationships, also in light of what’s out there already (i.e. ISIS and AVI Biopharma), should have easily supported this, if not for the lawsuit and threats thereof.

RNAi Therapeutics Investors Hoping for a Merry Christmas

I’ve just come back from working at the Starbucks across my street which strongly reminded me that Christmas was just around the corner. Christmas this year in RNAi Therapeutics is synonymous with data releases by Alnylam from its transthyretin amyloidosis (ALN-TTR01; data presentation November 20-22 in Japan) and hypercholesterolemia (ALN-PCS02; release of top-line results by year-end) phase I clinical trials. These have the potential to demonstrate, for the first time, direct and physiologically meaningful target gene knockdown following systemic RNAi delivery, and thereby have the potential to turn around still negative RNAi Therapeutics sentiments and depressed valuations.

Some of the anticipation can already be felt in the form of appreciating share prices of Alnylam and Silence Therapeutics, together with Tekmira the companies most directly exposed to the current RNAi Therapeutics dataflow, and the financial analyst-investment community which have turned noticeably bullish on Alnylam. Only Tekmira, the inventor of SNALP technology that powers ALN-TTR01, ALN-PCS02 and 5 other candidates in or close to clinical development, has not participated in the rally by failing to find investors willing to defend its stock after taking on well-connected Alnylam.

In assessing the data, a primary focus will be on whether dose escalation was able to proceedeup to the highest planned doses (1.0mg/kg for ALN-TTR01 and 0.25mg/kg for ALN-PCS02) and whether, despite the small number of patients at the high dose levels, there are clear signs for target gene knockdown. 50% target gene knockdown in both cases would be reasonable goals, and probably also necessary ones to have the desired impact. In the case of ALN-PCS02 there should also be at least a 30% reduction in ‘bad’ LDL-cholesterol, the intended pharmacologic outcome of a PCSK9-targeting agent. In terms of safety, the absence of grade 3 adverse events or worse would be highly welcome, of course, as we would be the absence of consistent and clinically meaningful innate immune activations.

Santaris’ anti-miR122 HCV Drug Continues to Impress

MicroRNA Therapeutics seems to have found its poster child already with Santaris’ miR122 LNA antagonist for the treatment of HCV. In an oral presentation at The Liver Meeting which is just wrapping up in San Francisco, the company reported robust dose-dependent anti-HCV activity in a phase IIa study, with close to a 3-log mean reduction of HCV RNA from baseline and viral load below detection in 4 of 9 patients at the highest dose of miravirsen (7mg/kg). The corresponding abstract marking a milestone in microRNA Therapeutics by reporting first clinical activity of an microRNA Therapeutic was released in early October (click here for commentary). There is no doubt that this drug candidate works as expected/hoped for, and unless the future of HCV treatment is in all-oral combos, anti-miR122 with its uniquely differentiated mechanism of action looks like a valuable addition to the fast-moving field of HCV care.

Santaris Reports Clinical Efficacy of Anti-miR122 Treatment for HCV

Santaris reported yesterday intriguing antiviral HCV efficacy results from an ongoing phase IIa study of miravirsen, Santaris’ LNA-based antisense inhibitor of microRNA-122 (miR-122), miravirsen, an important host factor in HCV replication. Full interim results will be presented in a late-breaking oral session at the upcoming AASLD, The Liver Meeting.

The phase IIa study investigates 3, 5, and 7mg/kg of miravirsen, given weekly to treatment-naïve HCV patients subcutaneously for 29 days. According to the abstract, with the study now in the 3^rd and last dose cohort, patients in the second, 5mg/kg cohort showed very encouraging mean reductions in viral plasma RNA levels from baseline of up to 2.5logs when miravirsen was given as a single agent compared to placebo control. 5 of the 9 miravirsen subjects had reductions of more than 2 logs (>100-fold) with viral RNA in one patient becoming undetectable 10 weeks after the dose. Although the cohorts were relatively small, 9:3 drug:placebo, almost all efficacy measurements reached statistical significance.

What was interesting is that the decline in viral titers was quite prolonged, with the biggest viral reductions being observed after treatment had finished. While having prolonged drug activity per se is positive, the gradual decline is not optimal as it increases the chance of selecting for escape mutants, a major issue in HCV treatment in general and reason why the industry is busy developing new HCV treatment options to be added to the arsenal. In fact, a recent study out of Denmark showed that it is possible to select for HCVs that do not require miR-122 for replication, at least in tissue culture systems. On the other hand, given that miravirsen is targeted at a host factor and since the miR-122-viral interaction occurs at conserved sites, it may be relatively more difficult for the virus to develop such resistance as compared to for example direct antivirals. I would expect the company to report sequencing data at the conference next month.

Irrespective of the viral escape issue, slow clinical responses may also make it somewhat more difficult to integrate miravirsen into the newly emerging treatment paradigms, one aim of which is the reduction of treatment times. Here, RNAi Therapeutics would have an obvious advantage over miravirsen by acting much more rapidly than phosphorothioate antisense oligos which rely on tissue enrichment over time. This is also supported by the data that were recently reported by SomaGenics in collaboration with Tekmira and Roche.

On the safety front, the abstract noted the absence of drug-related serious adverse events. It did, however, note that among the supposed biomarker signals for anti-122 efficacy was an elevation of alkaline phosphatase (ALP) levels. ALP elevations are normally considered a marker of liver injury similar to ALT/AST, so I am not really sure how why this is not considered a safety signal. We will therefore have to for the conference presentation to learn more about the safety profile of miravirsen.

Overall, with the demonstration of antiviral activity and reductions in cholesterol levels which further support functional inhibition of miR-122, the abstract marks an important milestone in the development of microRNA Therapeutics: The first unambiguous demonstration of MicroRNA Therapeutic activity in Man.

Roche AASLD RNAi Therapeutics abstracts: HCV and LNP

Roche will present at the AASLD meeting on two RNAi Therapeutics studies. Both studies involve LNP01, which I assume involves ‘lipidoid’ LNP delivery chemistry. In one study, Roche and their academic collaborators targeted a host factor believed to be involved in the development of HCV drug resistance, especially to the interferons which are at the risk of becoming replaced and, unsurprisingly, Roche would like to revive that franchise. The abstract, together with the recent SomaGenics/Tekmira revelations, further demonstrates that Roche had been quite interested in RNAi Therapeutics for HCV. It also makes me think that maybe Novartis has not picked HCV as a target under Alnylam IP which would e.g. allow Tekmira to step into the void- well, if it saw any reason to do so, maybe out of strategic considerations.

The other abstract concerned potential innate immune stimulation elicited by LNPs. Consistent with what had already been known or suspected, TLR7/8 are the major innate immune receptors and cause of LNP hepatotoxicity, and this can be alleviated by simple 2’-O-methylation as demonstrated before by Tekmira before. What was particularly nice though in this particular study was that with the use of TLR3 knockout mice, TLR3 can now essentially be excluded as a significant tox factor for LNP delivery.

Read also: Miravirsen shows efficacy in HCV chimpanzee models.

Impressions from the Abstracts of the 7th Annual Meeting of the Oligonucleotide Therapeutics Society (Part 1)

The Annual Meetings of the Oligonucleotide Therapeutics Society are among the best on the conference circus related to, well, oligonucleotide therapeutics drug development. One benefit of bringing together RNAi Therapeutics, traditional RNaseH and steric block antisense, aptamers, and a few other oligo-based approaches is that researchers can benefit from sharing lessons in safety, how pharmacology relates to chemistry and formulation, manufacturing etc. Remember, it is the experience with older oligonucleotide technologies that allowed RNAi Therapeutics to take 10, instead of 20 or 30 years, to get to where it is today: over a 1000 patients and healthy volunteers dosed with more than a dozen of RNAi candidates exhibiting a decent, and improving safety profile; the ongoing Atu027 and ALN-TTR01 trials having reached dose levels where, based on sound science, robust target gene knockdown, technologically the primary objective, can be expected. Moreover, data from hypercholesterolemia, solid cancer, ocular and respiratory disease studies have provided evidence of dose-related therapeutic efficacy.

Not able to attend the 7^th Annual Meeting to be held this week in Denmark myself, I eagerly went through the abstract book to learn of new developments and trends. Here are my thoughts on a few select abstracts that I thought might be of interest to the readers of this blog (presented in the order they appear in the book). Note that if you are a Tekmira investor, keep reading until the end. Part 2 of the discussion can be found here.

Oral presentation: Expanding the structural diversity repertoire of siRNAs (Dong-Ki Lee, Sunkyunkwan University, Korea)

This presentation highlights the realization that a number of non-Tuschl RNAi trigger structures are not just IP workarounds, but can be used to achieve novel biological outcomes such as targeting multiple genes with one RNAi trigger molecule (multipodal structures), inducing select innate immune stimulation while at the same time silencing genes (long siRNAs), and reducing off-targeting (asymmetric siRNAs and ‘wobbly’ siRNAs).

Oral presentation: Activation of RNA interference in animals with single-stranded oligonucleotides (Erice Swayze, ISIS Pharmaceuticals)

For some indications, the intravenous application of the nanoparticle RNAi formulations which are leading in terms of in vivo RNAi gene silencing potency may be a commercial drawback (for the purpose of long market exclusivities, I believe it is a widely underappreciated benefit). ISIS Pharmaceuticals, until recently in collaboration with Alnylam have been working on naked single-strand RNAi (ssRNAi) solutions that can be administered subcutaneously.

It has been long known that ssRNAs can induce RNAi gene silencing, just 100-1000 less efficiently, which is not surprising since RNAi has evolved as a dsRNA-induced mechanism. The abstract claims that using fully modified, partially phosphorothioated ssRNAs, they were able to come within 5-fold of the potency of corresponding double-stranded structures. The initial animal experiments, however, seem to have failed due to ssRNA instability, but after further modifications they have now achieved activity at ‘pharmacologically relevant doses with subcutaneous administration in saline formulations’.

Certainly an interesting abstract and it remains to be seen just how pharmacologically relevant these doses are and the related safety profile. Similar, or better to their current RNaseH antisense? ssRNAi...ISIS’ antisense 3.0? Another interesting question is at what point did Alnylam drop the ball on ssRNAi after considerable investments- before or after the initial animal experiment failures?

Oral presentation: Delivery of Nucleic Acids (Muthiah Manoharan, Alnylam)

Alnylam’s oral presentation will be, you already guessed, about RNAi delivery. By listing 25 papers on two pages without any meaningful comment or discrimination, the abstract obviously wants to make the point that Alnylam is the leader also in RNAi delivery. Somewhat reminiscent of Alnylam’s press releases that used to list seemingly all their RNAi trigger-related patents, no matter how relevant to their gate-keeping potential which was the reason for listing them in the first place. As such, the abstract carries the dubious distinction of being the longest one of the conference, but the one with arguably the least content.

It is not the amount of money spent, the numbers of patents (‘thousands’), or papers published that makes you a leader in RNAi Therapeutics.

Oral presentation: Non-covalent peptide-based delivery systems (Divita, CRBM-CNRS-UMR5237, Montpellier, France)

This abstract concerning a non-covalent cell penetrating peptide-siRNA systemic delivery technology to me has firstly sentimental value. This is not a specific criticism of the work to be presented, a body of work that is buttressed by some credible data, but the abstract still reminds me of the early days when RNAi Therapeutics was hot…hot, hot, and all kinds of, sometimes wild, delivery claims were made: oral, blood-brain, all organs to name a few keywords.

While I wished that there was more excitement around RNAi Therapeutics right now as the negativity, particularly in the commercial arena, threatens to choke deserving technologies, the one benefit of RNAi being less hyped and exploited for fund-raising purposes by the biotech promotion machinery is that the overall scientific credibility index has increased. This can also be seen from the abstracts at this year’s OTS meeting.

Oral presentation: Investigating the potential of therapeutic oligonucleotides for pulmonary diseases (Clark, GSK)

GSK and AstraZeneca are probably the two Big Pharma companies most interested in RNAi/oligonucleotide Therapeutics for pulmonary diseases. This is an area with high unmet medical needs and new therapeutic approaches are needed here more than anywhere else. There are fundamentally two different approaches to knocking down genes in the respiratory tract: local delivery by aerosol inhalation, or through systemic delivery. Based on the abstract, GSK seems to be primarily interested in inhalation methods.

Among the companies having explored inhalation are Alnylam, ISIS’ respiratory disease spin-off Altair, and most recently Tekmira. It has become obvious that Alnylam’s naked siRNA approach (e.g. in ALN-RSV01) is sub-optimal and conjugation plus chemical modifications need to be applied to give such ‘semi-naked’ routes a chance. Altair meanwhile has closed down following phase II results with their naked MOE gapmer antisense candidate for asthma. Based on Tekmira’s track record of publicizing only meaningful scientific progress, Tekmira's aerosolized LNP approach is to be considered a serious contender for the leadership position in gene knockdown in the respiratory epithelium. Tekmira this year has presented data that its aerosolized LNPs retain the ability to knockdown genes in tissue culture. It is quite possible that GSK was/is the undisclosed Big Pharma collaborator for this program.

Silence Therapeutics, probably more by necessity than choice, takes a systemic approach towards gene knockdown in the lung using their intravenously administered lipoplexes (DACC). Actually, since Silence’s and Tekmira’s technologies may be best suited for endothelial and epithelial cell knockdown, respectively, the two approaches are complementary. It would make sense if AstraZeneca had some familiarity with Silence’s DACC technology.

Abstract #9: [3H]-radiolabeling of siRNA (Christensen, Novartis)

Abstract #86: Characterization of side reactions during the annealing of siRNA (Noll, Roche)

I list the two abstracts from Novartis and Roche here together because I believe they illustrate the cultural differences between Big Pharma and pure-play RNAi companies. While pure-play companies emphasize biology and developing new RNAi trigger and delivery solutions, the established pharmaceutical companies are apparently more concerned about manufacturing and pharmacology methods. It is obvious that manufacturing and pharmacology is an essential part of the game, and such work is also happening at pure-play companies and their outsourcing partners, but such work obviously does not address the rate-limiting challenges and Big Pharma, perhaps with the exception of Merck, willfully relies on accessing that from the pure-play companies.

Abstract #16: Inhibition of complement C6 synthesis in the liver using antisense oligonucleotides affects neuro-regeneration (Fluiter, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, Netherlands)

This abstract highlights that by knocking down a gene in the liver, one can have therapeutic benefits for a wide range of non-liver diseases, such as neurodegenerative diseases. This is not really surprising given that all organs almost exclusively depend on their development and function on what they are provided for by the blood. Proteins made in the liver constitute the majority of free proteins in the blood and consequently impact all organs. Complement proteins which play a critical in immunity are one example of such proteins. As most diseases contain a complement-related immune/inflammatory component, RNAi Therapeutics could be a tool for modulating a wide range of autoimmune and other hypersensitivity disorders.

This principle of inhibiting a target in one organ to address disease in others (see e.g. transthyretin amyloidosis) is in contrast to other, post-translational therapeutic drug modalities that target the liver for which the therapeutic benefit is almost always restricted to the liver. As such, the medical and commercial potential of RNAi delivery technologies that work well for gene knockdown in the liver is larger than widely appreciated.

Abstract #27: Thirteen week non-clinical testing of miravirsen in cynomolgous monkeys (Hildebrandt-Eriksen, Santaris)

This abstract concerns the toxicological evaluation of Santaris’ exciting phase II LNA anti-miR122, a LNA-modified phosphorothioate steric block antisense, for the treatment of HCV infection. Despite the successes of the recently approved protease inhibitors for genotype 1 HCV, there is still considerable unmet medical need, including for those with less drug-responsive genotypes or those high-risk patients that have failed on established therapies.

Presenting on home soil, the reported toxicities were in line with expected class effects of phophorothioate oligonucleotides, including slight, but relatively persistent clotting abnormalities which was not judged an adverse side effect because of the apparently small extent of the increase; reversible kidney toxicities at doses above 10mg/kg (the effective dose of miravirsen is likely between 2 and 5mg/kg); and finally some enlargements in macrophages which does not appear to be of too much concern. Note that because miravirsen is not intended for chronic use, this safety profile may be adequate. In addition to liver toxicity, it appears however that the kidney toxicity will be something to watch out for in the development of miravirsen.

The first phase II study of miravirsen has just completed enrolment according to clinicaltrials.gov and I look forward to learning about the results in due course.

Abstract #30: Lipid nanoparticle formulations of minimal-length shRNAs show potent inhibition of HCV-driven, liver-specific gene expression in mice (Johnston, Somagenics- in collaboration with Tekmira)

This abstract concerns the evaluation of 40-50 nucleotide hairpin RNAs with Tekmira’s LNP delivery technology for liver gene knockdown (in this case using HCV as a model system). It is not a surprise that the abstract shows that Tekmira’s LNP technology works with various RNAi triggers. The real new insight for Tekmira investors, however, is that Tekmira did not go into this litigation in a way that its access to payloads would be threatened as a loss of access to Alnylam’s RNAi triggers may very well be one of the outcomes that could facilitate a settlement. Instead, Tekmira must have been evaluating various RNAi trigger structures and presumably other nucleic acid payloads as well, and when it chose to exclusively license Halo-Bios multivalent RNAi triggers one has to assume that this was after an extensive evaluation of their safety and potency.

Whether there will be a similar arrangement with SomaGenics remains to be seen. Synthetic shRNAs are credible RNAi triggers and may in fact have some advantages over two-stranded approaches, e.g. highly efficient unimolecular annealing. However, their development has been held back by increased cost of goods associated with such long oligonucleotides and concerns about clogging up the RNAi enzyme Dicer (probably not an insurmountable challenge). A licensing decision may also depend on how broad SomaGenics' intellectual property is with regard to shRNAs. It is highly unlikely that SomaGenics has any gate-keeping claim in this area, and partnering with them would have to be driven by their shRNA-related know-how.

To be continued...(for part 2 click here)