Arrowhead’s HBV Candidate Requires Further Dose Escalation

Today, we learned about some hard HBsAg knockdown numbers from the phase IIa Hong Kong study of ARC520 in chronically infected HBV patients.  The data relate to the first 2 cohorts in this ongoing dose escalation trial.  Accordingly, the mean HBsAg knockdown at nadir for the starting dose of 1mg/kg was 39% within a range of 22-57% (n=6) while it was 51% within a range of 46-59% for the 2mg/kg cohort (n=6).

ARC520 was given as a single dose to patients already stably on polymerase inhibitor entecavir.

It should be noted while numerically the improvement in knockdown from 1mg/kg to 2mg/kg was only 12%, this is likely the result of the apparent high variability at the lower dose level with the increased tightness of the knockdown range at 2mg/kg indicating that the RNAi mechanism is starting to be solidly engaged with the expectation of a steepening dose response going forward.

While clearly missing the company’s own guidance of a 1 log reduction at 2mg/kg, the good safety profile-no SAEs at all in the study with all AEs rated to be unrelated to ARC520- in addition to the steepening dose-response curve following 2mg/kg means that ARC520 is far from being out of the HBV knockdown race.  Still, the stock market over-reacted, punishing ARWR stock with a percent decrease that matched the reported knockdowns.

Although even I ended up willing myself into believing that a 70-80% knockdown was possible following a single ARC520 dose of 2mg/kg, revisiting the chimp study which involved 2 doses of ARC520 (first one at 2mg/kg then one at 3mg/kg), it should be noted that at the time the 3mg/kg dose was administered, the HBsAg levels had only declined by 50%...about the same as achieved in the phase IIa study.  It is thus possible that Arrowhead gave the 2^nd dose just as HBsAg levels were about to go up again, consistent with the already rebounding levels of HBV DNA and HBeAg in that study.

As a result, my expectations for the single 3mg/kg dose are now 70-75% based on the ~75-80% peak HBsAg knockdown in the chimp study following the 2mg/kg and 3mg/kg doses.  This also means that in order to reach that 1log knockdown goal the company had set for itself, 4mg/kg will most likely be needed.  Importantly, in the concurrent phase I dose-escalating study in healthy volunteers, this quite large amount of drug seemed to be well tolerated and the company is awaiting approval to adopt this dose in the Hong Kong study.

This projection is not much off the 90% knockdown achieved in the ARC-AAT program at 3mg/kg in non-human primates.  The improvement of this 2^nd DPC-based candidate about to enter the clinic is possibly explained by progress in the potency of 2-molecule DPC delivery technology.  I add this as today many were confused about what the interim phase IIa results meant for the platform and the value of the company.

Overall, as long as 4mg/kg is an acceptable dose from a tox point-of-view, ARC520 is still in the game to be first-in-class in HBV knockdown.  It would have been much worse if say a 70% knockdown had been reported, but worrisome safety signals emerged.  On the other hand, the continued need for a dose escalation would seem to delay Arrowhead’s broad-based phase IIb study plans, meaning that the competition, in particular Tekmira's TKM-HBV is coming closer.

At a market cap of ~$400M, the market has almost fully discounted the potential of ARC520 given the $150M+ in cash as well as the IND-ready, first-in-class ARC-AAT for which we can expect solid knockdowns in the clinic.  Interestingly, data for this candidate were selected for an oral presentation at AASLD while the ARC520 data will be in less prestigious poster form. Finally, should the single-molecule DPC which got me excited about the Arrowhead RNAi platform in the first place finally reach the clinic, it would necessitate an upward revision of the value of the company.

Disclosure: Long ARWR.  I sold most of my holdings at $11 and change given the underwhelming results and increasingly negative market reaction, but got back in below $6 when I considered the sell-off to be a gross over-reaction and imminent 3mg/kg data having the potential to surprise the market to the upside from now much lowered expectations.  Add to this ARC-AAT, the platform...

Dose of ARC520 HBV Drug Candidate to be Increased to 3mg/kg

Today, Arrowhead Research reported preliminary phase IIa safety and efficacy results of ARC520 in patients infected with HBV.  The goal of this study is to determine the level of viral knockdown, especially HBsAg, following a single dose of ARC520.

Efficacy in-line with animal studies

The results for the 1mg/kg and 2mg/kg cohorts indicate that knockdowns are in-line with what has been seen with 2 molecule DPC-enabled RNAi in non-human primates, including the HBV-infected chimpanzee.  The company could not be more specific about numbers since it is still a blinded study and the knockdown curves apparently haven’t stabilized yet after 8 weeks in the 2mg/kg cohort suggesting remarkably prolonged pharmacology.

In the chimp study, HBV load in serum was reduced by 1log at 2mg/kg, but determination of the HBsAg knockdown following a single administration was complicated by the fact that Arrowhead gave a second dose of ARC520 of 3mg/kg before the HBsAg knockdown at 2mg/kg had leveled off.  With 2 doses of 2mg/kg and 3mg/kg 2 weeks spaced apart, the final knockdown was ~80%.  This level of knockdown was likely an underestimate of the true efficacy of ARC520 since one of the two siRNAs was a mismatch and the chimp had very high viremia to start with.  For the non-human primate study with ARC-AAT, Arrowhead’s new development candidate for alpha-1 antitrypsin, the knockdown with a single dose of 1.5mg/kg was ~75%.

Taken together, I expect that the knockdown at 2mg/kg to be somewhere around 70-75%.

Arrowhead extending to higher doses

While this level of HBsAg knockdown in such a short period of time, would be superior to anything before in the HBV space, for comfort and competitive reasons, it is not all that exciting.  What is more exciting is that Arrowhead is doing what I’ve always said they should be doing, namely testing higher doses than 2mg/kg.

This is because for 2-molecule DPC-RNAi, it is the amount of the endosomolytic peptide that is rate-limiting for knockdown efficacy. As shown in animal model after animal model (e.g. Wooddell et al. 2013), the efficacy achieved with 2mg/kg was well below maximal knockdown efficacy.  However, when slightly extending the dose to 3mg/kg or 4mg/kg, the depth of knockdown increases tremendously. 

In the case of ARC-AAT for example, a 75% knockdown at 1.5mg/kg became a knockdown of 90% at 3mg/kg, which was the same knockdown as with 6mg/kg indicating that a plateau had been reached.  In the case of HBV, the plateau, based on 6mg/kg endosomolytic peptide was a virtual elimination of HBsAg in the serum.

Despite the various genes and doses, the picture is that the dose-response becomes very steep soon after 2mg/kg.  Whether it is 3mg/kg or 4mg/kg is another question.  Arrowhead is currently gearing up for these doses following phase I extension studies in healthy volunteers,   

The most important news today therefore is that 3mg/kg in healthy volunteers was as well tolerated as 1mg/kg and 2mg/kg before (4mg/kg in the works).  Indeed, it was even better tolerated since the skin reactions disappeared with the transient use of an oral anti-histamine. 

Results from the 3mg/kg cohort in this dose-finding study should be presented at or around AASLD in November. Stay tuned.